Just when we thought we had dodged NASA's falling satellite, the German space agency is saying that there's a 1-in-2,000 chance that debris from its 21-year-old satellite will hit someone this weekend. For the sake of comparison, back in September, before NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite plunged harmlessly into the Pacific Ocean, the agency estimated that it had a 1-in-3200 chance of hitting someone The Washington Post writes that the space junk should land around October 22 or 23. While 1-in-2,000 sounds pretty high to us -- especially when talking about plummeting heated metal ripping through the roof, the the experts at the German Aerospace Center explain that the odds are actually pretty low:
It is possible to calculate that the probability of someone somewhere on Earth getting injured is about 1 in 2,000; that is, one person is predicted to be injured for every 2000 de-orbit events of this kind. The probability of someone in Germany being harmed is much lower: about one injury for every 700,000 de-orbit events.