The party that suffered the most from the shutdown is obvious from even the highest-level analysis. But the Cook Political Report, which regularly assesses the state of House and Senate races, can provide a more direct evaluation. Fifteen House races shifted over the course of the shutdown. Fourteen of them saw the Republican incumbent lose ground.

Cook assigns each race a rating on a scale from "Strong Democratic" to "Strong Republican," going through gradations of "Likely," "Lean," and "Toss-up" in between. House Speaker John Boehner is in a "Strong Republican" district, meaning it's almost certain he'll win in 2014. Rep. Ron Barber, who replaced Gabby Giffords, is in a toss-up district, based on voter demographics and fundraising levels.

So who are these unfortunate 14 Republicans that saw their chances for reelection drop over the course of the shutdown? Comparing the new ratings to the previous ones, the unlucky representatives emerged.

The color of the district represents the likelihood — after the re-evaluation — that a seat will go for either party. The darker it is red, the more likely the Republican will win. The darker the blue, the more likely the Democrat will prevail.

Rep. Gary Miller

District: CA-31
Change: Democratic Toss-Up to Lean Democratic

Rep. Mark Takano

District: CA-41
Change: Likely Democratic to Strong Democratic

Rep. Mike Coffman

District: CO-6
Change: Lean Republican to Republican Toss-up

Rep. Lois Frankel

District: FL-22
Change: Likely Democratic to Strong Democratic

Rep. Justin Amash

District: MI-3
Change: Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Rep. Tim Walberg

District: MI-7
Change: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Rep. Steve Daines

District: MT-at large
Change: Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Rep. Lee Terry

District: NE-2
Change: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Rep. Frank LoBiondo

District: NJ-2
Change: Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Rep. Jon Runyan

District: NJ-3
Change: Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Rep. Steve Pearce

District: NM-2
Change: Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Rep. Tom Reed

District: NY-23
Change: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Rep. Bill Johnson

District: OH-6
Change: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick

District: PA-8
Change: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

It's important to notice that even though each of these races shifted on behalf of the Democrat, they are all still largely Republican-leaning districts. As Cook notes in its write-up of the change, "as atrocious as the post-shutdown wreckage looks for Republicans, now is not the time to get carried away."

Even after our 15 ratings changes today, there are only 18 GOP-held seats in Lean Republican, Toss Up, or Lean Democratic. In other words, Democrats would not only have to hold all of their own seats (including 10 races in Toss Up), but "run the table" on vulnerable GOP seats in order to win a majority.

The damage done to the Republican party at large is real; the damage done in individual districts, not insignificant. But often, the shutdown merely put a few seats in play — early in a very long race. Only one race that was leaning Republican is a toss-up after the shutdown.

And in case you were curious about that 15th race? The one that got worse for Democrats? It's in the 3rd district of West Virginia. It went from "Lean Democratic" to "Toss-up." Speaker Boehner doesn't need to worry about reelection — or about the prospect of Speaker Pelosi — just yet.

Photo: Rep. Amash doesn't need to head for the door just yet. (AP)