Update 5:10 p.m.: Democratic Senator Carl Levin announced the Senate Armed Service Committee will not be taking Hagel's confirmation vote to the Senate floor on Thursday. The committee wants to wait and see the information requested by Lindsay Graham and Jeff Sessions about Hagel's paid speaking career. "I had hoped to hold a vote on the nomination this week, but the committee’s review of the nomination is not yet complete. I intend to schedule a vote on the nomination as soon as possible," Levin said in the statement. 

Original: Chuck Hagel's big Secretary of Defense nomination is expected to head to a vote on the Senate floor tomorrow, and there's all this talk about whether or not he's going to be confirmed. So, what are his real chances of getting nixed?

But first things first: Hagel's future might not go to a vote tomorrow. Two senior GOP Senators are now advocating the vote be delayed until they see some financial records from his speaking arrangements, because apparently that marathon confirmation hearing didn't drag this out long enough. What Sens. Lindsay Graham and Jeff Sessions expect to get from Hagel's camp remains unclear, but they want to know who paid him and how much he got for each arrangement.

If Hagel's confirmation does head from the Senate Armed Service Committee to a full Senate vote on Thursday, Hagel needs 51 votes to replace Leon Panetta at the Pentagon. But wait! Mitch McConnell raised the idea of maybe, possibly filibustering Hagel's nomination, which would mean Hagel needs 60 votes to be confirmed. So, like we said, what are the real chances of Hagel's nomination getting blocked? That depends on who's said what, at least in public. Math time! 

Advocating a vote delay (2 total):

Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-South Carolina)

Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Alabama)

Voting against Hagel (14 total):

Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-South Carolina)

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas)

Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona)

Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kansas)

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida)

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Missouri)

Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Alabama)

Sen. James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma)

Sen. David Vitter (R-Louisiana) 

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Mississippi) 

Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Oklahoma) 

Sen. Dan Coats (R-Indiana)

Sen. Richard Burr (R-North Carolina)

Publicly leaning toward voting against Hagel (five total, with probably more privately):

Sen. John Hoeven (R-North Dakota)

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)

Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-Arizona)

Sen. Mike Enzi (R-Wyoming)

Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Illinois)

Voting for Hagel (57 total): 

Senators Mike Johanns (R-Nebraska) 

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi)

Sen. Angus King (I-Maine)

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont)

+ 53 Democratic Senators expected to confirm

= Hagel is confirmed

Publicly for a filibuster:

[No one]

Publicly against a filibuster:

Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona)

Sen. Richard M. Burr (R-North Carolina)

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine)

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Missouri)

Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kansas)

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa)

+ 53 Democrats and two Independents

= 61 votes, which mean Hagel is confirmed.

Time to put a bow on this one and send it to a five-sided building in Virginia, folks.