Though National Review reported New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is putting "a lot of thought" into running for president and plenty of political reporters are still eager to play into that idea—the smart money is on Christie not entering the race, even as he prepares for a major speech tonight at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library about "American exceptionalism." Here's what's pouring cold water on a Christie 2012 bid, what fed the hype machine and why he's better off sitting this one out:

His closest allies say he's not running, reports Chris Megerian on NJ.com:

Christie's brother, a well-connected Republican fundraiser, said the governor hasn't changed his mind. "I'm sure that he's not going to run," Todd Christie said. "If he's lying to me, I'll be as stunned as I've ever been in my life."

Three people close to Christie said they were surprised by Kean's comments to National Review, a conservative magazine. They said the two men hadn't spoken in about a week — Christie and Kean gave back-to-back speeches at a Homeland Security conference on Wednesday -— and they insisted that Christie wasn't going to run.

On top of that, sources close to Christie tell Fox News "he has finally made a definitive decision, once and for all, not to run for president in 2012."

Press is hyping him just to suck up, writes Kevin Manahan at The Star-Ledger:

CAN WE STOP THE INSANITY? ...Enough with the sucking up from supposedly tough TV moderators like David Gregory and Bob Schieffer, who schmooze Christie, toss him softballs, make him blush and keep the “Christie for President” Mylar balloon aloft just so he’ll come back on their shows. One MSNBC host called Christie a hero and the other demanded a big hug from the big lug. (Hold on, I’ll be back after I hurl.)

He doesn't have enough time now, says Fox News host Bill O'Reilly on Good Morning America:

Very hard to raise money, very hard to put a national organization together in the period of time he would have to do so. And I think that the governor himself, it would be wiser for him to really establish himself in New Jersey because he hasn’t been there very long.

He's just as vulnerable as Romney and Perry in many ways, writes Aaron Blake at The Washington Post:

He’s got many of the same liabilities that Perry and Romney have been trying to tag each other with in recent debates and on the campaign trail...

* Christie has praised President Obama’s efforts on education reform and even suggested in February that he wouldn’t rule out voting for the president... Christie said that he doubts that he’d vote for Obama? That’s probably not close to good enough for the conservative base...

* Christie said last month that he believes climate change is real...

* As New York Magazine noted on Tuesday, Christie has expressed support for a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants...

* While Christie has said he wouldn’t sign a same-sex marriage bill, he has expressed support for moving towards civil unions...