As one of the traditional battleground states, Ohio is consistently seen as a bellwether for American electoral politics. And this year, as the primaries have demonstrated, is clearly the year of a Republican resurgence, both hampered and assisted by Tea Party momentum. In Ohio, the numbers are even worse for Democratic candidates: Governor Strickland is down in the polls by as much as 17 points to his Republican challenger John Kasich and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher is trailing to Republican Rob Portman by 20 points. If the Buckeye state represents the shifting attitudes of Americans then the outlook looks very grim for the president's party come November. Based on the latest poll results, critics speculate if the Democrats can turn their fortunes around:
In the Governor's Race, Independents Are All the Difference observes Evan McMorris-Santoro at Talking Points Memo. "[Republican Challenger] Kasich is crushing Strickland among non-aligned voters in both the CNN/Time poll (where he commands a 16-point lead among independents) and the Q poll (where Kasich leads among indys by a staggering 23 points)."
- The Obama Brand Is 'Tanking' in Ohio finds Hotline reporter Jeremy P. Jacobs. "Most troubling for Democrats and the White House -- Ohio voters overwhelmingly want a senator who opposes Obama's proposals. 58% said they prefer a senator who opposes Obama, while 37% want one who supports him. The numbers present a tough question for the DSCC and the DGA. At this point, Republican leads in these races are so large that it may not be worth it for Democrats to invest in them."
- GOP Money Advantage is Real "Democrats concede that Portman has opened up a consistent lead over Fisher -- thanks in no small part to a massive fundraising advantage that has allowed the Republican to flood the airwaves with ads over the past month or so," points out Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post. "It seems likely that Portman's lead is in the high single digits rather than the 20-point margin that the Q poll suggests."
- 'A Democratic Bloodbath' reports The Atlantic's Mark Ambinder, who sees little that Democrats can take solace in. "Public and private polling from the state suggests that Democrats will lose the governor's mansion, currently held by Ted Strickland, the Senate race (for an open seat that was held by a Republican), and at least four House races (OH 01, OH 15, OH 13, OH 16)." Here's one of the only bits of good news: "Organizing for America, the DNC's campaign arm, hasn't given up. Unfortunately for him, however, there is anecdotal evidence that many voters have."
- Ohio Democrats Can't Blame Bush Anymore writes Mark Z. Barabak at The Los Angeles Times. "Faulting Bush, some said in Ohio, sounds like the typical Washington sniping that Obama promised to end when he ran for president in 2008....Barring some dramatic shift, voters seem likely to vent their unhappiness with Obama by punishing fellow Democrats with losses well beyond those normally suffered in a midterm vote."
- Because Ohioans Appear To Prefer Bush to Obama in an National Review article about George Bush's unlikely revival, Victor Davis Hanson notes that, "recent polls show
an astounding rebound in the former president’s favorability — to the
extent that in the bellwether state of Ohio, voters would rather still
have Bush as president than have Obama by a 50–42 margin."