The Golden Globe Awards, aka the Drunkard's Oscars, are going down on Sunday night, which means it's time to make some (educated-ish) guesses about who will win. We'll go category by category giving you our picks, but just one caveat: We are not fortune tellers and are thus not responsible for any losses you incur through some sort of office or party pool. (Though, of course, in the unlikely event that you should win with our guesses, we are entitled to 70% of the money.)
Best Picture, Drama
The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, The Ides of March, Moneyball, War Horse
While The Descendants and The Help certainly have their vocal supporters, we're thinking that Steven Spielberg's sweeping family film will endear itself to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (who votes on these awards) more than anything else.
Best Actress, Drama
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs; Viola Davis, The Help; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin.
Swinton had buzz around Cannes, but that was many long months ago. Similarly Albert Nobbs had everyone wondering if this was finally Glenn Close's year to win until that film whimpered out. But everyone (well, almost everyone) just loves Meryl Streep so much, and she hasn't won in thirty years, and this is the kind of performance that people get awards for, so we see it going to her.
Best Actor, Drama
George Clooney, The Descendants, Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar, Michael Fassbender, Shame; Ryan Gosling, Drive; Brad Pitt, Moneyball
People liked Moneyball and everyone looooves Brad Pitt, and it's "his time" to get awards recognition, so we think he's likely to take this. J. Edgar just didn't hit big enough to make DiCaprio a lock, though he stands a chance. Really everyone except Fassbender seems like they have a decent shot at this thing. Hm, is there some kind of sabermetric we could use to figure this out?
Best Picture, Comedy/Musical
50/50, The Artist, Bridesmaids, Midnight in Paris, My Week with Marilyn
Any other year and Bridesmaids and Midnight in Paris would be serious contenders, but The Artist is so beloved, and so likely to take Best Picture at the Oscars, that we just can't see it not winning.
Best Actress, Comedy/Musical
Jodie Foster, Carnage; Charlize Theron, Young Adult; Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids; Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn; Kate Winslet, Carnage
This is a tough category to call. Let's get rid of Foster and Winslet off the bat because nobody liked that movie. Williams has certainly earned hearty praise for her Marilyn Monroe, but that movie kinda fizzled fast. Charlize Theron's is the best, most interesting performance on this list, but it might be a bit too acrid to earn awards love. So that leaves the big populist hit Bridesmaids, which people loved and want to give something to (it's not up for screenplay), so why not toss a bone to Kristen Wiig to celebrate the movie in a category that doesn't really mean much come Oscar time? We think that's what they'll do.
Best Actor, Comedy/Musical
Jean Dujardin, The Artist; Brendan Gleeson, The Guard; Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50; Ryan Gosling, Crazy, Stupid, Love; Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris
For charming the pants off people and making everyone swoon, we think this is Jean Dujardin's in a walk.
Best Animated Feature
The Adventures of Tintin, Arthur Christmas, Cars 2, Puss in Boots, Rango
Sure Cars 2 is Pixar, but it doesn't really count as one of their Prestige movies, so we don't see the studio racking up another award for this one. (Though it's posible.) Instead we think that Tintin's grand experiment with motion-capture will win the night, making it a double boon for director Steven Spielberg.
Best Foreign Language Feature
The Flowers of War (China), In the Land of Blood and Honey (USA), The Kid With a Bike (Belgium), A Separation (Iran), The Skin I Live In (Spain)
Everybody adores Pedro Almodovar, but The Skin I Live In was only mildly received. The HFPA loves them some Angelina Jolie, but probably not enough to reward her remedial war drama. So we think that the rapturously reviewed, many a top ten list-making A Separation, with is politically charged Iran association and everything, will take the cake.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Octavia Spencer, The Help; Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Octavia Spencer has a good, underdog shot here, but we think that simply because Chastain was in about seven hundred movies this year, and terrific in all of them, that she'll be thanked for all her hard work with a golden paperweight.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn; Albert Brooks, Drive; Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Plummer's lovely, quiet work is the sentimental favorite for some here, but we're just not sure enough people saw that movie. Lots of folks raved about Branagh's Laurence Olivier, but kinda ditto on that one. Very few saw Drive either, but those that did couldn't stop raving about Brooks' against-type villainy, so we think he'll win for Best Surprise.
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; George Clooney, The Ides of March; Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Alexander Payne, The Descendants; Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Though Clooney and Scorsese are widely beloved, and Allen had his first genuine hit in many years with Paris, we think the HFPA will have to recognize the daring that Michel Hazanavicius had in directing a silent black & white picture in 2011.
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, The Ides of March; Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, The Descendants; Stan Chervin, Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball
We think this is where The Descendants wins its award. Like, they're not going to give it to a movie with no talking, right?
Best Original Score
Ludovic Bource, The Artist; Abel Korzeniowski, W.E.; Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Howard Shore, Hugo; John Williams, War Horse
Though there has been some controversy surrounding his use of classic film scores from years past, we still think Bource will take it for providing the all-important soundtrack for The Artist.
Best Original Song
"Hello, Hello" - Gnomeo & Juliet - Elton John/Bernie Taupin; "The Keeper" - Machine Gun Preacher - Chris Cornell; "Lay Your Head Down" - Albert Nobbs - Brian Byrne/Glenn Close; "The Living Proof" - The Help - Thomas Newman/Mary J. Blige/Harvey Mason Jr./Damon Thomas; "Masterpiece" - W.E. - Madonna/Julie Frost/Jimmy Harry
Uh, this is an often bizarre and increasingly unnecessary category (it seems rare that songs are written for movies these days), so let's just take a guess and say the one from The Help. Sure. The Help. Here's an award.
American Horror Story, Boardwalk Empire, Boss, Game of Thrones, Homeland
While we'd love to see Game of Thrones walk away with this one, it's probably just a little too fantasy for some. So we'll give the edge to Boardwalk Empire, which had a creatively blossoming second season. Though of course Homeland was quite the watercooler hit...
Best Actress, Drama
Claire Danes, Homeland; Mireille Enos, The Killing; Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife; Callie Thorne, Necessary Roughness (Seriously? Seriously)
We think this is a more likely category for Homeland to win in, as Danes' fiery, frantic work is the engine of the series. If not her, it's another win for Margulies.
Best Actor, Drama
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire; Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad; Kelsey Grammer, Boss; Jeremy Irons, The Borgias; Damian Lewis, Homeland
While he's won every Emmy he's been nominated for for Breaking Bad, Bryan Cranston has never won a Golden Globe, so we give the advantage to Buscemi.
Best Comedy or Musical
Enlightened, Episodes, Glee, Modern Family, New Girl
Though Enlightened is very good, we're just not sure it hit enough to make an impact with HFPA voters. This kinda seems like Modern Family has it in the bag, right?
Best Actress, Comedy/Musical
Laura Dern, Enlightened; Zooey Deschanel, New Girl; Tina Fey, 30 Rock; Laura Linney, The Big C; Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Her show was hot for all of 2011, what with all the Ron Swanson internet stuff and everything, so we think this is Poehler's year. And you know what? She deserves it.
Best Actor, Comedy/Musical
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock; David Duchovny, Californication; Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory; Thomas Jane, Hung; Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
It's kind of a random list this year, so barring any kind of strange Matt LeBlanc upset (could happen!) we'll go for the safe bet and say Baldwin.
Best Miniseries/TV Movie
Cinema Verite, Downton Abbey, The Hour, Mildred Pierce, Too Big to Fail
This feels like it's between Downton and Mildred and that it's a close race, but because it's been so exceedingly talked about for the past year or so, we think Downton will take it. Quite good, quite good indeed.
Best Actress, Miniseries/TV Movie
Romola Garai, The Hour; Diane Lane, Cinema Verite; Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey; Emily Watson, Appropriate Adult; Kate Winslet, Mildred Pierce
This is pretty much a guarantee for Winslet, who has already won an Emmy for the role.
Best Actor, Miniseries/TV Movie
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey; Idris Elba, Luther; William Hurt, Too Big to Fail; Bill Nighy, Page Eight; Dominic West, The Hour
Another somewhat random category, so a bit of blind guessing is in order. How about Lord Grantham then, eh?
Best Supporting Actress, All of television
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story; Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire; Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey; Sofia Vergara, Modern Family; Evan Rachel Wood, Mildred Pierce
Heh, it's funny to think that Sofia Vergara and Maggie Smith are nominated for the same award. An award that, it seems almost certain, Dame Smith will win.
Best Supporting Actor, Everything on TV
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones; Paul Giamatti, Too Big to Fail; Guy Pearce, Mildred Pierce; Tim Robbins, Cinema Verite; Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Just like at the Emmys, we think Dinklage will take this is as his show's token award.